I had not thought about my fledgling theory for years until I read "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman. Because one of his theories is that we have 2 systems of thought, which he calls system 1 (small wheel) and system 2 (big wheel). Basically, he says that system 1 makes loads of decisions all the time and it's quick and copes easily with quite hard things like how to walk down a busy street without walking into people, and system 2 needs to be engaged for more difficult calculations like multiplying 22 by 17 in your head. He can tell when system 2 is engaged because the pupils of the eyes change in size when it is working. So he can make a physical measurement of when system 2 is working.
But system 2 is lazy and needs to be made to work; we would rather rely on good old system 1 with its snappy judgments, and that's how we make silly mistakes and allow bias to creep into our thinking. Kahneman and his research partner found their own mistakes interesting and started to look at biases in decision-making. The kinds of experiment they did were so simple and elegant; I really admired them. There were no questionnaires involved. They used measurements and timers and scientific method to try to find out how the brain works. I really recommend this book because the experiments are so admirable. I can't remember the names of all the biases they explored, but the other night I watched this TV programme which introduces the viewer to Danny Kahneman, Nobel prize winner, and brings his theories to the viewing public.
The problem with the programme is the visuals. There are endless shots of New York streets and London streets to occupy your eyes, while the voiceover explains the research. That's all. The producer was posed with the problem of how to make this interesting, visually, and he failed to solve it.
But watch it anyway if you are interested in the mistakes you may be making in your thinking, especially where money is concerned.
Sorry the programme has been taken off iplayer.
further post here
Further post here
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